War is Peace

As of September, after a relatively long period of supposedly superficial peace on the Korean Peninsula, the hermit kingdom of North Korea has once again commenced its belligerent provocations against its southern counterpart. Though North Korean provocations are nothing new, having occurred time and time again over the 70 or so years of division, the previously unseen scale at which the rogue nation is threatening the fragile peace between the two opposing regimes, coupled with the recent events that have been taking place in the international community, seems to reveal a more sinister intention behind these acts of aggression. To sum up, during the past two months, North Korea has carried out a multitude of provocative flights, fired artillery into the Inter-Korean Maritime Buffer Zone^[1], and launched an unprecedented amount of missiles, one of which, rather alarmingly, landed south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL)^[2], the first time a North Korean projectile had gone beyond this boundary since the end of the Korean War.

               With global peace ever becoming a vague and distant reality as more and more countries resort to brute force in resolving disputes, North Korea’s violent acts cannot go unnoticed. In this age of a New Cold War in which the world has once again been divided into distinct factions fiercely opposing each other, it is paramount to remember that prosperity is not obtained through violence and conflict, but rather, that it can only be achieved through unity and cooperation. As such, The Sogang Herald aims to provide insight to readers on the current tensions between the two Koreas and alert them that peace is once again at risk.

A Quick Briefing: What Has Been Going On Thus Far

It all began on Sep. 25, when North Korea fired a single ballistic missile into the East Sea^[3]. What appeared to be a normal missile training session on the outside turned out to be the realization of North Korea’s plans to launch missiles from inland reservoirs in an attempt to conceal its strategic actions. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)^[4] later reported that this was part of a string of drills carried out by North Korea’s tactical nuclear weapon units under the direct supervision of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un from Sep. 25 to Oct. 9, proving that the long efforts of the international community to denuclearize North Korea were of no avail.

Such provocations continued until the addition of artillery fire on Oct. 14, on which North Korean shells landed within the Inter-Korean Maritime Buffer Zone⁠ in a clear violation of the 9.19 South-North Korea’s Military Agreement^[5]. The situation progressively escalated thereafter, up to a point at which one of 25 missiles launched on Nov. 2 landed in international waters, 26km south of the NLL in the direction of Ulleung Island. Worse still, the missile landed within Korea’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), on an active fishery to be precise, meaning that it could have directly harmed or even killed civilians had they not evacuated the area.

▲ On Nov. 2, a North Korean missile landed 26km south of the NLL in international waters.

Meanwhile, on Nov. 4, around 180 warplanes were spotted within North Korean airspace carrying out, as the General Staff Department of the Korean People’s Army claims, up to 500 sorties—an unprecedented number only accentuated by the fact that North Korea’s dismal economy and distinct lack of resources hinder the country from maintaining a functioning air force. By now it is obvious that North Korea must have a purpose behind these continuous provocations. Ex-North Korean diplomat and current Member of Parliament Thae Yong-ho estimated that the provocations that occurred between Nov.2 to 5 would have likely costed north of $144 million in missiles alone, a budget that is, according to Director of Good Farmers Institute Cho Choong-hee, sufficient to feed the entire North Korean population for a whole month. Not even a rogue nation like North Korea would dare waste such a budget on provocations which, for the most part, seem to serve no visible purpose.

To understand the intentions behind North Korea’s provocations, the geopolitical situation on the Korean Peninsula must be taken into account. Korea is well-known to be one of the last divided nations yet to be united. Lesser-known, perhaps, is that the two regimes are still in a state of war; though combat had formally ceased in 1953 as part of the Korean Armistice Agreement, an end-of-war declaration was never agreed upon. To this day, both regimes refuse to recognize each other as legitimate governments, each claiming to be the only lawful entity on the peninsula. This is specifically mentioned in Article 3 of the Constitution of the Republic of Korea: “The territory of the Republic of Korea shall consist of the Korean peninsula and its adjacent islands.” The territory mentioned here includes the area governed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, implying that North Korea is an unauthorized organization illegally occupying the northern half of Korea’s territory.

Reunification, by means of reclaiming their rightful territory, has been a long dream for both regimes, North Korea often employing provocative measures in the quest to achieve this objective. For some time during the Moon Jae-in administration, however, these provocations had largely ceased as a result of the various efforts from both sides to denuclearize and restore peace on the Korean Peninsula. Unfortunately, what appeared to be the beginning of a new era of peace and unity came to an untimely end as North Korea resumed its provocations by blowing up the Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office[6] in 2020. It being a symbol of reconciliation, the destruction of the joint liaison office could only mean one thing: the inter-Korean relations were about to go pear-shaped.

What Do You Want, Rocket Man

Probably the most obvious purpose behind North Korea’s provocations is to protest against the Korea-US Alliance and its perceived aggression. The Korea-US Alliance has two aspects, one being an economic partnership aiming to stabilize both economies and deepen their integration. However, more important is the military aspect of this alliance which includes the nuclear umbrella provided by the United States. The nuclear umbrella operates on a principle of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) whereby if an allied country of the United States is attacked with nuclear weapons, the United States will retaliate using their own nuclear arsenal. North Korea is particularly disapproving of this policy as its military capabilities have been heavily outmatched by the United States up to a point where nuclear assault is the only effective method of maintaining a balance of power. North Korea’s situation is only worsened by the fact that the Korea-US Alliance also allows US troops to be stationed in Korea, widening the gap of power between the two nations even further. The United States has a history of overthrowing dictatorships by the power vested in the title of the global police, and there seems to be no reason as to why North Korea would be an exception to this. In this context, the constant provocations seem like a desperate struggle to maintain its fragile regime.

North Korea’s leadership is fragile. The dictatorship is reliant on a severely flawed ideology^[7] and the entire country depends on an ailing economy severely compromised by countless US sanctions. As such, North Korea’s provocations may also serve as a means of achieving internal political stability by emphasizing its military power through displays of hostile acts towards its so-called external enemies^[8], a propaganda strategy reminiscent of George Orwell’s 1984. Such tactics allow the North Korean government to convince its people that the regime remains, though only on the surface, strong and prosperous, but also, it can easily incite them to unite for a single cause—to stand for and defend the dictatorship. In other words, external war is internal peace for North Korea.

▲ Emphasizing an external enemy is an effective method of fostering solidarity within an organization.

Lastly, in order to survive as an autonomous regime, North Korea must be accepted by the international community as a normal state, something easier said than done when several UN member states, including Korea and the United States, are refusing diplomatic recognition. In response to this, rather than devoting efforts into stabilizing the country and improving international relations, North Korea has opted for the path of nuclear armament instead, using fear of nuclear warfare as a tool to exert influence on the international community. This is particularly relevant in 2022 as the international community has currently been in a state of chaos with a major war dragging on for several months. Whilst the United States and other first world nations are occupied trying to attend to the war in Ukraine, North Korea could easily make use of this period of disorder to make advancements in nuclear development. This is also a good opportunity for the country to express its demands by means of provocations without having to be concerned about the implied repercussions. Through the continuous string of provocations since September, North Korea has made clear on which side it stands in the era of the New Cold War: definitely one that does not value peace.

What Must be Done

The Korean government has the responsibility to protect its citizens from external threats, including North Korean provocations. That being said, it is largely agreed upon that the way in which Korea is responding to the recent string of provocations is less than adequate. The reason behind this is simple. Due to the intensity of the provocations and the long-standing sentiments and tensions between the two regimes, the situation could quite possibly escalate into a state of war should Korea retaliate in a particularly hostile manner. Of course, if war does ever break out again, North Korea will have to face severe consequences, but it will, without a doubt, be at the cost of massive destruction and losses on Korea’s side too. Korea is a highly developed nation with too much to lose, whereas North Korea does not have much to give up in the first place, meaning that it may not hesitate to resort to brinkmanship. Brinkmanship is an extreme strategy that aims to gain an advantage by threatening the opponent with dangerous, often destructive acts. A concept originally coined during the Cold War, it is now North Korea’s main avenue in trying to get what it wants, and it could, in the end, bring everyone down with it.

With the fear of war looming over the Korean Peninsula, the provocations from North Korea must be put to an end for the safety and prosperity of the Korean people. Appeasements of the past have proven to be ineffective, and it might be the time to take the hard line. There is something to learn from the Korean Axe Murder Incident that occurred at the Joint Security Area (JSA) in 1976. Two US Army Officers, Captain Arthur Bonifas and First Lieutenant Mark Barrett, were brutally murdered by North Korean forces whilst felling a tree. In response to this, Korea formed a 64-man forlorn hope of the First Special Forces Brigade which went on to destroy four North Korean guard posts, sending the North Korean troops on a frantic runaway. The conflict did not escalate further, but the gravity of the retaliation was enough to convey the message that Korea will not tolerate such provocation. As North Korea is perpetrating provocations far more sinister than ever before, it is about time the message was made clear once again: North Korea must be stopped.

Stay Aware, Stay Vigilant

The real hazard, however, lies within. The truth is that North Korean provocations have occurred so frequently over the years that many are now becoming accustomed to the situation. Though Korea has achieved rapid development vastly outshining its northern counterpart, inter-Korean relations remain unpredictable, and one simply cannot remain blissfully ignorant of the fact that North Korea still has the motives to favour aggression over peaceful negotiation in achieving its goals. Therefore, as citizens of a democratic country, people must remain vigilant about these threats and voice their opinion to move the country in the right direction. In the end, it is the people who determine the country’s fate.

It is but a tragedy that a once whole country divided by external forces is still aiming its weapons at each other after 70-odd years, with the chances of reunification becoming ever so slimmer as time passes. The Sogang Herald hopes that, at some point in the distant future, eternal peace is restored on this beautiful peninsula with the establishment of one integral nation.

By Kim Tae-uck (Int’l & Social Editor)
ypyitu@sogang.ac.kr